War Clouds Over Taiwan: China’s Provocative Drills Signal Inevitable Conflict?

Is Taiwan Ready for a War? Military Tensions Escalate between Taiwan and China


Taiwan has strongly condemned the latest round of military exercises conducted by China around the island, calling them an "unreasonable provocation." The exercises, which featured a menacing display of Chinese warships and fighter jets, have caused global alarm and raised tensions, representing yet another flashpoint in the ongoing tug-of-war over Taiwan's sovereignty.



The Chinese military has conducted its operation, named Joint Sword-2024B, as the army, navy, air force, and rocket force maneuvered as a coordinated entity, concentrating these drills in the narrow Taiwan Strait that separates Taiwan from mainland China. This time, these drills are a direct warning to the so-called "separatist acts" of Taiwan's independence forces. China has been increasing its aggressive posturing toward Taiwan for years; these exercises have become a regular show of military might.


Are We Witnessing A Message Of War?

Beijing has not ruled out force in achieving what it calls "reunification" with Taiwan – a democracy of 23 million that China considers a breakaway province. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has emerged as the most assertive leader since Mao, has made Taiwan's "reunification" a priority in his national agenda. The latest drills send a message that China is preparing for confrontation.



The PLA in recent years has consistently conducted more exercises that often overlap with perceived slights against Beijing. These include visits from high-ranking foreign officials, as well as statements from Taiwan's government claiming sovereignty over the island. Last year, for instance, China staged a massive round of drills following a visit to Taiwan by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Similarly, in May 2024, Beijing retaliated to the inauguration of Taiwan's new President, Lai Ching-te, with its own round of military provocations, branding Lai as a "dangerous separatist."



Now, following Taiwan's National Day, where President Lai reiterated the independence status of Taiwan, China is again showing off its military muscles. A propaganda video by China's Eastern Theater Command, titled "Prepared for Battle," shows fighter jets, warships, amphibious assault vessels, and mobile missile launchers – an ominous message for all to see: "prepared for battle at all times and can fight anytime."


The Gray Zone Tactics

The drills further highlight China's use of "gray zone" tactics – operations short of open war but calculated to exhaust the defense capabilities and wills of Taiwan. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry detected over 25 Chinese aircraft, including 16 across the Median Line – an unofficial boundary in the Taiwan Strait. For its part, seven Chinese warships and Coast Guard vessels were seen patrolling close to Taiwan.


These gray zone tactics are part of a larger strategy of intimidation meant to push Taiwan over the line without triggering full-scale war – at least for now. But everything is boiling over, and most believe that these provocations will quickly boil over into something much more perilous.


China's Growing Aggression

The fresh Beijing exercises include combat-readiness patrols, blockades of key ports, and assaults on maritime and ground targets. There has been no live-fire exercise or missiles thus far in this drill, but what has been conducted is enough to raise serious alarms. In May alone, China's warships made 91 sailings over 2,200 hours of operating time, costing around $12.7 million, while its jets made 111 flights around Taiwan, estimated at around $47.8 million.



These exercises, of course, are more than just demonstration power; they are part of a highly orchestrated military strategy designed to prepare to surround Taiwan in readiness to invade. China has recently taken its Liaoning aircraft carrier east of Taiwan and launched simulated missile launches. It would not take much in the form of an accidental clash or miscalculation to ignite a wider conflict.


US Reaction: Do Things Have to End in War?

The United States said it is deeply concerned over the actions of China as this may destabilize the whole region. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller addressed Beijing to "act with restraint" and avoid further provocative acts that might escalate matters further. However, Beijing showed little sign of retraction. China's state media has already been consistent in its message: Taiwan will find itself at a "dead end" if it pursues independence. "The more the separatist forces dare to provoke, the further the PLA will advance," said professor Zhang Chi of the National Defense University in China.


Taiwan's government is indifferent to the rising tensions. President Lai continued saying that Taiwan is not a colony of China, and reconfirmed the island's commitment towards its democratic system. He said China should stop playing military games, which deliver blows to peace and regional stability in an inconsistent manner. It seems that China is adamant to follow this aggressive policy, and every new exercise brings the line of war closer to Taiwan.


Will Taiwan Be Prepared?

Taiwan's military has been preparing for a potential conflict with an almost 5-million-strong army force that China has. Taiwan's Defense Ministry released its own forces to monitor the drills, and President Lai convened national security meetings to discuss possible responses. "In the face of external threats, I want to reassure my compatriots that the government will continue to defend democratic Taiwan," Lai said on Facebook.



Taiwan's future is still unsettled, however. China's desire to unify Taiwan under its influence poses an existential threat to Taiwan's democratic government. The question is no longer if China will attack but when. Taiwan prepares for what could be its ultimate test, and the world anxiously waits to see if the simmering standoff will eventually ignite into a full war.



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